Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.45435e-05           1           1          48          45           5        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.47559e-05           1           2          58          35           4        C8.3
GOES Xray  =   2.29077e-07           1           1          68          27           3        C6.5
est. ISN   =       73.0000           1           6          54          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.25        3.25       57.00       35.50        4.00     C7.7
 
realized                                                                                      M1.4