Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.56080e-05           1           4          44          47           4        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.33026e-05           1           3          55          38           3        C8.4
GOES Xray  =   2.44026e-07           1           0          40          51           8        M1.1
est. ISN   =       62.0000           5          14          59          20           2        C3.5
 
together                             1.75        5.50       49.50       39.00        4.25     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      M6.0