Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.07832e-05           1           2          80          17           0        C3.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.40863e-05           1          13          79           7           0        C2.1
GOES Xray  =   1.57742e-07           1           5          79          15           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =       68.0000           1           8          67          23           1        C3.8
 
together                             0.75        7.25       76.25       15.50        0.25     C3.0
 
realized                                                                                      C2.0