Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.10424e-05           1           2          66          28           3        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.94050e-05           1           7          80          11           1        C2.7
GOES Xray  =   2.18309e-07           1           1          63          31           4        C6.5
est. ISN   =       61.0000           3          15          61          19           2        C3.7
 
together                             1.25        6.50       67.50       22.25        2.50     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      C2.1