Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.90247e-05           1           4          80          14           1        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.55354e-05           1           8          80          11           0        C2.5
GOES Xray  =   1.53261e-07           1           8          81          10           0        C2.6
est. ISN   =       54.0000           2          19          62          17           0        C2.5
 
together                             0.75       10.25       75.75       13.00        0.25     C2.7
 
realized                                                                                      M3.5