Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.08291e-05           1           2          66          28           3        C6.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.47555e-05           1           2          59          34           4        C8.1
GOES Xray  =   2.11976e-07           1           1          69          25           4        C5.2
est. ISN   =       47.0000           4          23          62           9           2        C1.9
 
together                             1.25        7.50       64.00       24.00        3.25     C4.4
 
realized                                                                                      X6.9