Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.57769e-05           1           4          45          46           4        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.76470e-05           1           2          69          26           2        C4.7
GOES Xray  =   2.43152e-07           1           0          41          50           8        M1.2
est. ISN   =       28.0000           7          54          32           7           0        B6.3
 
together                             2.25       15.25       46.75       32.25        3.50     C6.1
 
realized                                                                                      C6.1