Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.71458e-05           2           2          78          18           0        C4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.61687e-05           1           2          77          19           1        C4.4
GOES Xray  =   1.69701e-07           1           6          76          17           0        C3.4
est. ISN   =       29.0000           7          48          38           7           0        B7.4
 
together                             2.50       14.75       67.25       15.25        0.25     C3.3
 
realized                                                                                      C6.2