Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.47172e-06          17          76           6           1           0        B4.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.94035e-06          29          70           0           1           0        B2.0
GOES Xray  =   2.05443e-08          15          85           0           0           0        B2.3
est. ISN   =       14.0000          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            19.75       73.75        5.50        1.00        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B1.8