Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.81176e-05           2           5          71          22           0        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.20093e-05           1           3          73          23           0        C3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.46230e-07           1           5          81          13           0        C2.6
est. ISN   =       0.00000          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            13.75       13.25       58.50       14.50        0.00     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)