Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.39088e-05           1           0          48          42           9        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.64741e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.30645e-07           1           1          65          29           4        C6.0
est. ISN   =       39.0000           5          47          41           6           1        B9.6
 
together                             1.50       12.50       50.00       29.75        6.25     C6.1
 
realized                                                                                      C3.4