Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.20117e-06          30          67           3           0           0        B2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.97163e-06          28          70           1           1           0        B2.0
GOES Xray  =   2.86403e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B3.0
est. ISN   =       46.0000           4          24          61           8           3        C1.8
 
together                            18.50       62.00       16.50        2.25        0.75     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)