Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.71333e-05           4          45          48           3           0        C1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.73122e-05           6          40          49           5           0        C1.0
GOES Xray  =   9.93704e-08           1          31          66           2           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =       45.0000           4          25          61           7           3        C1.7
 
together                             3.75       35.25       56.00        4.25        0.75     C1.2
 
realized                                                                                      C2.9