Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.92050e-05           1           4          79          15           1        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.96360e-05           1           5          82          12           0        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.61522e-07           1           7          77          15           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =       71.0000           1           3          60          32           4        C5.4
 
together                             0.25        5.50       74.50       18.50        1.25     C3.3
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1