Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.20821e-05          11          70          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.31055e-06          15          76           9           0           0        B3.7
GOES Xray  =   5.57696e-08           8          77          14           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =       75.0000           1          10          50          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             8.75       58.25       23.00        9.00        1.00     B6.6
 
realized                                                                                      B5.7