Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.44305e-06          19          75           5           1           0        B3.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.54442e-06          16          76           7           1           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   5.33683e-08           8          80          11           1           0        B5.7
est. ISN   =       54.0000           2          19          62          17           0        C2.5
 
together                            11.25       62.50       21.25        5.00        0.00     B5.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1