Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.45175e-05          12          57          29           2           0        B7.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.21957e-05           8          66          25           1           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   9.59371e-08           1          30          69           0           0        C1.3
est. ISN   =       50.0000           2          15          69          13           1        C2.0
 
together                             5.50       42.25       48.00        4.00        0.25     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                      B9.6