Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.92960e-05           3          40          54           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.08247e-05           4          23          68           5           0        C1.6
GOES Xray  =   9.42247e-08           1          33          66           0           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =       66.0000           3           7          70          19           1        C3.2
 
together                             2.75       25.75       64.50        6.75        0.25     C1.6
 
realized                                                                                      C2.3