Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.93413e-05           3          38          56           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.64058e-05           5          45          44           6           0        C1.0
GOES Xray  =   1.04252e-07           1          27          69           3           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =       59.0000           3          19          61          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             3.00       32.25       57.50        7.00        0.25     C1.3
 
realized                                                                                      B8.7