Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.04669e-05           8          77          14           1           0        B4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.13386e-05          10          75          15           0           0        B5.7
GOES Xray  =   4.75019e-08           8          84           7           1           0        B5.3
est. ISN   =       49.0000           3          19          67           8           3        C2.2
 
together                             7.25       63.75       25.75        2.50        0.75     B6.0
 
realized                                                                                      B5.4