Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.01920e-05           1           4          62          31           2        C5.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.58356e-05           1           1          81          16           1        C4.5
GOES Xray  =   1.85289e-07           1           2          77          18           2        C3.7
est. ISN   =       43.0000           4          35          54           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             1.00       11.25       68.50       17.50        1.75     C3.6
 
realized                                                                                      C3.7