Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.20394e-05           1           3          78          18           0        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.75817e-05           2           8          79          10           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.64496e-07           1           7          76          16           0        C3.7
est. ISN   =       69.0000           1           5          68          24           2        C4.2
 
together                             0.75        6.25       75.25       17.00        0.75     C3.6
 
realized                                                                                      C5.5