Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.71691e-05           4          44          49           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.28361e-05           6          61          32           1           0        B7.9
GOES Xray  =   1.27173e-07           1           9          82           8           0        C1.9
est. ISN   =       96.0000           1           0          64          29           6        C6.5
 
together                             2.75       28.50       57.00       10.25        1.50     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      C2.2