Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.36093e-05           5          24          65           6           0        C1.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.06294e-05           4          26          65           5           0        C1.5
GOES Xray  =   1.09718e-07           2          23          72           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =       88.0000           1           0          72          24           3        C4.5
 
together                             3.00       18.25       68.50        9.50        0.75     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.8