Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.66058e-05           1           4          49          43           3        C8.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.80986e-05           1           1          38          50          10        M1.2
GOES Xray  =   2.44022e-07           1           0          39          52           8        M1.2
est. ISN   =       74.0000           1           8          55          33           3        C6.6
 
together                             0.50        3.75       45.25       44.50        6.00     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.6