Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.19180e-05           1           0          39          49          11        M1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.91736e-05           1           1          45          42          11        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   3.05562e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       58.0000           3          18          65          13           1        C2.9
 
together                             1.00        4.75       45.25       40.00        9.00     C9.6
 
realized                                                                                      X2.1