Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.19626e-05           1           0          38          50          11        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.13250e-05           1           2          35          49          13        M1.6
GOES Xray  =   2.40627e-07           1           0          40          51           8        M1.2
est. ISN   =       47.0000           4          23          62           9           2        C1.9
 
together                             1.25        6.50       44.00       39.75        8.50     C9.5
 
realized                                                                                      X1.8