Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.14146e-05           1           1          67          28           3        C6.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.29192e-05           1           4          56          36           3        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   2.12586e-07           1           1          68          27           3        C5.3
est. ISN   =       35.0000           6          54          30          10           0        B7.6
 
together                             2.00       15.25       55.25       25.25        2.25     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      M6.7