Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.77198e-05           2           2          76          20           0        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.24669e-05           1           4          57          36           2        C6.9
GOES Xray  =   1.99165e-07           1           0          73          24           2        C4.8
est. ISN   =       47.0000           4          23          62           9           2        C1.9
 
together                             1.75        7.50       67.00       22.25        1.50     C4.1
 
realized                                                                                      M2.7