Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.16974e-05           1           1          67          26           5        C6.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.59838e-05           1           0          51          41           7        C9.6
GOES Xray  =   2.33035e-07           1           2          61          32           4        C6.5
est. ISN   =       90.0000           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             0.25        1.50       63.25       29.75        5.25     C6.7
 
realized                                                                                      C9.9