Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.28103e-05           1           1          65          27           6        C6.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.51618e-05           1           2          83          14           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   2.19719e-07           1           0          65          31           3        C6.6
est. ISN   =       94.0000           1           0          69          25           5        C6.1
 
together                             0.25        1.50       70.50       24.25        3.50     C5.6
 
realized                                                                                      C2.9