Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.29382e-05           1           1          64          28           6        C6.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.94394e-05           1           0          68          30           1        C6.1
GOES Xray  =   2.01303e-07           1           0          74          24           1        C4.3
est. ISN   =       124.000           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.25        0.50       64.75       30.75        3.75     C6.3
 
realized                                                                                      C9.3