Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.18588e-05           1           1          68          25           5        C6.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.50221e-05           1           2          83          14           0        C3.9
GOES Xray  =   1.98752e-07           1           0          74          23           2        C4.5
est. ISN   =       104.000           1           1          65          29           4        C6.3
 
together                             0.50        1.50       72.50       22.75        2.75     C5.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.4