Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.87766e-05           2           4          69          25           0        C4.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.13385e-05           1           2          57          38           2        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   1.77457e-07           1           2          85          12           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =       93.0000           1           0          74          21           4        C5.7
 
together                             1.25        2.00       71.25       24.00        1.50     C4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8