Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.32973e-05           1           0          39          46          14        M1.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.96047e-05           1           1          36          49          13        M1.5
GOES Xray  =   2.91064e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       80.0000           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             0.25        1.25       43.00       44.50       11.00     M1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C9.5