Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.30356e-05           1           0          39          46          14        M1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.98903e-05           1           1          38          48          12        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.75135e-07           1           0          31          57          11        M1.7
est. ISN   =       70.0000           1           3          68          26           2        C4.3
 
together                             0.25        1.25       44.50       44.25        9.75     M1.1
 
realized                                                                                      M1.8