Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.57578e-05           1           0          47          43           9        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.06146e-05           1           2          38          47          12        M1.2
GOES Xray  =   3.05224e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       71.0000           1           3          60          32           4        C5.4
 
together                             0.25        1.50       44.25       44.50        9.50     M1.1
 
realized                                                                                      X1.4