Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.31412e-05           1           1          62          29           7        C6.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.68564e-05           1           2          72          23           2        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   2.37655e-07           1           1          55          37           6        C8.0
est. ISN   =       75.0000           1          10          50          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.50        4.00       59.75       31.00        4.75     C6.5
 
realized                                                                                      X1.9