Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.58506e-05           1           0          47          43           9        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.47530e-05           1           1          44          44          10        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.76059e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       79.0000           1           4          65          26           4        C5.0
 
together                             0.50        1.25       47.00       42.25        9.00     M1.0
 
realized                                                                                      M7.4