Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.04167e-05           1           3          65          29           2        C5.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.76698e-05           1           0          40          49          10        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   3.16189e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       73.0000           1           6          54          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.25        2.50       47.75       42.25        7.25     C9.9
 
realized                                                                                      M4.0