Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.73597e-05           1           4          50          42           3        C8.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.02615e-05           1           1          66          30           2        C6.4
GOES Xray  =   2.18197e-07           1           1          64          31           3        C6.4
est. ISN   =       67.0000           1           7          68          23           1        C3.9
 
together                             0.75        3.50       62.00       31.50        2.25     C6.1
 
realized                                                                                      C6.4