Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.67688e-05           1           2          76          20           1        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.95047e-05           1           6          80          12           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.83259e-07           1           2          82          14           1        C3.6
est. ISN   =       71.0000           1           3          60          32           4        C5.4
 
together                             0.25        4.00       74.50       19.50        1.75     C3.8
 
realized                                                                                      M1.2