Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.72951e-05           2           2          78          18           0        C4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.48755e-05           1           2          83          14           0        C3.9
GOES Xray  =   1.76324e-07           1           2          86          11           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =       83.0000           1           1          58          34           6        C7.5
 
together                             1.25        1.75       76.25       19.25        1.50     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      C2.7