Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.68428e-05           1           4          49          43           3        C8.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.55240e-05           1           0          52          40           7        C9.5
GOES Xray  =   1.99746e-07           1           0          72          25           2        C4.7
est. ISN   =       75.0000           1          10          50          35           4        C7.0
 
together                             0.50        4.00       55.75       35.75        4.00     C7.5
 
realized                                                                                      M1.0