Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.79263e-05           1          10          79           9           1        C2.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.61658e-05           1           6          81          12           0        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.62764e-07           1           5          78          16           0        C3.6
est. ISN   =       83.0000           1           1          58          34           6        C7.5
 
together                             0.50        6.00       74.00       17.75        1.75     C3.6
 
realized                                                                                      M1.2