Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.73605e-05           1           4          50          42           3        C8.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.42318e-05           1           1          62          33           3        C7.5
GOES Xray  =   2.35481e-07           1           1          59          34           5        C7.1
est. ISN   =       83.0000           1           1          58          34           6        C7.5
 
together                             0.50        2.25       57.25       35.75        4.25     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      M3.9