Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.93701e-05           1           5          66          28           0        C4.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.05432e-05           1           1          60          35           3        C6.9
GOES Xray  =   2.12198e-07           1           1          69          26           3        C5.2
est. ISN   =       79.0000           1           4          65          26           4        C5.0
 
together                             0.75        3.00       65.00       28.75        2.50     C5.4
 
realized                                                                                      C7.6