Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.86909e-05           1           5          78          15           1        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.09287e-05           1           5          73          21           0        C3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.15363e-07           2          18          73           7           0        C1.6
est. ISN   =       90.0000           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             1.00        7.25       74.50       15.75        1.50     C3.1
 
realized                                                                                      C7.3