Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.15910e-05           1           1          68          27           3        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.15994e-05           1           2          56          39           2        C7.7
GOES Xray  =   1.85074e-07           1           2          78          17           2        C3.7
est. ISN   =       70.0000           1           3          68          26           2        C4.3
 
together                             0.25        2.75       67.50       27.25        2.25     C5.2
 
realized                                                                                      C9.2