Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.96177e-05           1           1          82          15           1        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.18547e-05           4          23          66           7           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   1.36296e-07           1           7          79          13           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =       70.0000           1           3          68          26           2        C4.3
 
together                             1.00        9.25       73.75       15.25        0.75     C2.6
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9